As the Premier League season draws to a close, Liverpool, Manchester City, and Arsenal are separated by just two points. But which team is best-positioned to win the title in May?
We examine the chances for both teams, delving deeply into the statistics and featuring analysis from pundits Gary Neville and Paul Merson.
They may be able to maintain their position at the top of the table thanks to their offensive potency. They have demonstrated their depth by scoring 12 goals in their past four Premier League games without Mo Salah. The Egyptian is getting closer to being fully fit again.
On the opposite side of the ball, there is also cause for optimism: Andrew Robertson is back to full strength following a four-month absence, Alisson is still the Premier League’s indisputable number one goalkeeper, and Virgil van Dijk has nearly reached his peak again.
Could their chances be further enhanced by the news of Jurgen Klopp’s exit at the conclusion of the season? Of course, the feeling will improve the atmosphere at Anfield. Remember that City has only triumphed once in seven Premier League visits under Pep Guardiola, and that was away from home during the 2020–21 season.
Following the summer exits of James Milner, Jordan Henderson, Fabinho, and Naby Keita, Klopp virtually completely restructured Liverpool’s midfield. Still, they don’t have a No. 6 to compete with Declan Rice or Rodri.
Their options in that area of the field are further limited by another injury to Thiago Alcantara. In addition, even with Van Dijk’s impressive play, there are still questions in the defense as they must rely on the superb but occasionally injured Ibrahima Konate because of Joel Matip’s absence.
Although they have only let up 23 goals, which is second fewest only to Arsenal, can they continue to concede at this rate? Their opponents have significantly more opportunities than both City and Arsenal, according to the underlying statistics, which reveal that they have handed up 29.63 expected goals against (xGa) thus far, compared to 22.14 for City and 18.05.
